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Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:12, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 115 American Flight history → DFW 09:15 HNL 12:11 26% 7% 0.8% 71%
AA 5 American Flight history → DFW 11:30 HNL 14:26 26% 8% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:50 → ATL 08:57DL 401 53m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 30m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 27m Detroit DTW 10:31 → HNL 13:59DL 385 13h 39m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → HNL 14:05AA 693 11h 57m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → DFW 08:12 → SLC 09:58DL 1291 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:35DL 861 11h 23m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:00 → LAX 17:18DL 521 1h 19m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 10h 22m 89% 73%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:26 → SFO 17:25UA 2413 1h 35m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 11h 17m 83% 69%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:31 → SFO 09:32UA 790 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 10h 49m 88% 66%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260 3h 48m Houston IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253 13h 16m 98% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON