Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:17, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 385 Delta	DTW 10:31	HNL 13:59	18%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:46DL 372	12h 45m	98%	77%
United Details →	DTW 09:05 → DEN 10:27UA 2302	1h 33m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 08m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419	13h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:35DL 861	12h 10m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:50 → JFK 08:31DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 26m New York	JFK 09:57 → HNL 14:26DL 636	13h 36m	93%	72%
United Details →	DTW 06:58 → SFO 09:18UA 1550	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 22m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON