Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 20–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2408 FAI 02:10 → SEA 06:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 97 FAI 16:04 → SEA 20:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2408 Delta Flight history →	FAI 02:10	SEA 06:54	20%	7%	1.3%	76%
AS 92 Alaska	FAI 01:15	SEA 05:54	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 302 Alaska	FAI 12:02	SEA 16:42	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	25%	4%	0.8%	83%
AS 97 Alaska	FAI 16:04	SEA 20:43	27%	6%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON