Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 398 Delta	HNL 15:31	ATL 06:02	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 21:40 → ATL 05:32 +1UA 233	13h 57m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:46AS 267	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ATL 07:37 +1AS 464	14h 33m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	11h 35m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON