tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: United via SFO, leaving 13:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 218 United Flight history → HNL 16:00 ORD 05:05 13% 6% 1.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:30 → SFO 21:37UA 650 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 11h 27m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 32m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ORD 00:54 +1UA 1958 12h 44m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 11h 46m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 17:48 → ORD 23:52DL 1634 11h 52m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:46AS 267 3h 53m Seattle SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:34 +1AS 285 13h 30m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 16:46 → ORD 22:54UA 2780 10h 54m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176 50m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ORD 00:54 +1UA 1958 10h 19m 72% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON