Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: United via SFO, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 357 Delta Flight history →	HNL 19:46	SLC 05:44	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
AS 715 Alaska	HNL 12:49	SLC 22:44	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	8h 58m	96%	82%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SLC 22:11UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	11h 01m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:40 → SEA 18:26AS 122	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → SLC 23:45AS 669	10h 05m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:46AS 267	58m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → SLC 23:45AS 669	8h 41m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON