Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: one nonstop, DL 4693 at 15:29, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:29	MSP 17:21	29%	10%	2.2%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:53 → ATL 08:18DL 2379	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 37m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:31 → MSP 19:05DL 2654	7h 14m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:47 → ATL 21:16DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	6h 52m	88%	74%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 11:59AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 15:37 → MSP 17:30AA 2140	8h 30m	98%	71%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	50m Charlotte	CLT 10:47 → MSP 12:26AA 1671	5h 31m	86%	69%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 12:00 → MSP 13:41AA 3131	8h 17m	100%	68%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → MSP 17:40AA 4746 · flown by Republic	6h 40m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:24 → DTW 14:11DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	2h 09m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 48m	92%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON