Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14: UA 491 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 491 IAH 07:34 → MSY 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2140 IAH 18:56 → MSY 20:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 491 United Flight history →	IAH 07:34	MSY 09:00	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
OO 4786 SkyWest	IAH 21:45	MSY 23:07	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
YV 6284 Mesa	IAH 16:52	MSY 18:21	15%	6%	1.7%	no record
UA 2738 United	IAH 15:00	MSY 16:27	15%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 575 United Flight history →	IAH 09:45	MSY 11:01	17%	8%	3.1%	79%
UA 2161 United	IAH 20:04	MSY 21:22	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2385 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	MSY 13:14	19%	7%	2.4%	86%
UA 2140 United Flight history →	IAH 18:56	MSY 20:22	22%	8%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON