Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:57	HNL 14:26	21%	4%	1.1%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	29%	6%	2.8%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	15h 43m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:35DL 861	14h 35m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:05 → DTW 08:54DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → HNL 13:59DL 385	12h 54m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:36 → MSP 08:32DL 2390	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:46DL 372	13h 10m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419	14h 09m	96%	73%
American Details →	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297	15h 41m	96%	72%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5	13h 56m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	48m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → HNL 14:05AA 693	13h 03m	74%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON