Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:24, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:24	LIH 09:38	6%	1%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	2h 24m Honolulu	HNL 09:11 → LIH 10:06AS 1043	4h 06m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:43 → HNL 15:46AS 1107	3h 00m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → LIH 19:42AS 1163	4h 59m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:27 → HNL 08:30AS 1027	1h 21m Honolulu	HNL 09:51 → LIH 10:46AS 1053	3h 19m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:25 → HNL 16:28AS 1117	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 19:33 → LIH 20:29AS 1173	5h 04m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 35m Honolulu	HNL 21:24 → LIH 22:20AS 1183	5h 18m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:15 → HNL 13:18AS 1087	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 17:15 → LIH 18:11AS 1143	5h 56m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:44 → HNL 12:47AS 1077	3h 45m Honolulu	HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:28AS 1133	5h 44m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:27 → HNL 11:30AS 1057	3h 47m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	5h 46m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	46m Honolulu	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:32AS 1063	2h 44m	46%	38%
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:26 → HNL 14:29AS 1097	48m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	2h 47m	49%	38%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:43 → HNL 15:46AS 1107	46m Honolulu	HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:28AS 1133	2h 45m	47%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON