Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	11%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 11:14 → PDX 19:43AS 890	7h 24m	94%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:24 → LIH 09:38AS 1029	2h 44m Lihue	LIH 12:22 → PDX 21:04AS 901	9h 40m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	2h 31m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 02m	100%	76%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 21:12 → PDX 23:10UA 2413	8h 15m	91%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:27 → HNL 11:30AS 1057	52m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 23m	56%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON