Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2230 Southwest	KOA 10:02	SMF 18:01	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 843 Alaska	KOA 13:47	SMF 22:07	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 58m Kahului	OGG 13:53 → SMF 22:03AS 960	9h 44m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	2h 20m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 31m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 20:39 → SMF 22:21AS 428	8h 44m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON