Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	20%	4%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → KOA 09:03AS 1048	3h 03m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	1h 21m Honolulu	HNL 09:09 → KOA 10:12AS 1068	3h 00m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:42 → HNL 16:36AS 1114	2h 15m Honolulu	HNL 18:51 → KOA 19:54AS 1168	4h 12m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	3h 00m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 45m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:56 → HNL 09:50AS 1034	1h 46m Honolulu	HNL 11:36 → KOA 12:39AS 1098	3h 43m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:00 → HNL 17:54AS 1134	3h 09m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	4h 50m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 06m Honolulu	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:33AS 1128	4h 47m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:28 → HNL 14:22AS 1094	3h 37m Honolulu	HNL 17:59 → KOA 18:45AS 1158	5h 17m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:28 → HNL 14:22AS 1094	52m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	2h 33m	64%	47%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:17 → HNL 11:11AS 1054	51m Honolulu	HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:05AS 1108	2h 48m	54%	42%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:48 → HNL 12:42AS 1074	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:33AS 1128	2h 45m	43%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON