Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:56, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:46	SAN 19:24	24%	5%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:52 → HNL 18:46AS 1144	3h 14m Honolulu	HNL 22:00 → SAN 06:36 +1AS 93	9h 44m	99%	80%
United Details →	LIH 12:42 → SFO 20:56UA 1112	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 22:39 → SAN 00:17 +1UA 1389	8h 35m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	3h 42m Honolulu	HNL 11:30 → SAN 20:08AS 827	9h 56m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 49m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:56 → HNL 09:50AS 1034	2h 49m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 11m	99%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:59 → HNL 11:53AS 1064	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 08m	36%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON