Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:03AS 1150	2h 50m Kahului	OGG 13:53 → SMF 22:03AS 960	9h 09m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:56 → HNL 09:50AS 1034	2h 21m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 23m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 20:39 → SMF 22:21AS 428	8h 35m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON