Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5163 MSN 06:58 → DTW 09:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5033 MSN 17:58 → DTW 20:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5163 Endeavor	MSN 06:58	DTW 09:21	5%	3%	1.5%	no record
DL 5205 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 09:25	DTW 11:48	5%	2%	1.4%	82%
DL 844 Delta Flight history →	MSN 13:31	DTW 15:49	10%	4%	0.8%	81%
9E 5033 Endeavor	MSN 17:58	DTW 20:21	13%	5%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON