Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14: OO 5365 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:23 → IAH 06:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2253 MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:23	IAH 06:58	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
YV 6223 Mesa	MSY 19:07	IAH 20:37	14%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	17%	7%	2.3%	90%
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:34	IAH 16:59	17%	5%	0.9%	81%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:21	IAH 18:46	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	21%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	21%	4%	0.8%	73%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 12:07	IAH 13:26	23%	6%	1.1%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON