Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1526 OGG 20:26 → PHX 05:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 9782 OGG 15:30 → PHX 00:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1526 Southwest	OGG 20:26	PHX 05:05	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 432 American Flight history →	OGG 21:17	PHX 06:00	10%	5%	0.6%	94%
AA 9782 American	OGG 15:30	PHX 00:34	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → PHX 23:27UA 1653	8h 27m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 11:51 → PHX 20:48AS 836	8h 03m	93%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON