Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:53	SMF 22:03	18%	5%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:29 → KOA 11:23AS 1030	2h 24m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:07AS 843	8h 38m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 51m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 38m	100%	77%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 19:04 → SMF 19:54UA 1862	9h 44m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON