tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 219 United Flight history → ORD 10:19 HNL 14:03 23% 7% 1.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 50m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 14h 14m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 3h 05m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 08m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 48m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 39m Los Angeles LAX 13:12 → HNL 16:02UA 1224 14h 02m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 10:46 → LAX 12:58AA 1979 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → HNL 18:41AA 143 12h 55m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:04 → PHX 06:59AA 769 3h 07m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → HNL 14:05AA 693 14h 01m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:55 → SFO 13:44UA 543 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 13h 30m 93% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 13:54 → LAX 16:06UA 374 59m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 10h 50m 68% 54%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:57 → SEA 09:15AS 587 51m Seattle SEA 10:06 → HNL 12:54AS 626 10h 57m 62% 35%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 09:02 → SEA 11:20AS 583 50m Seattle SEA 12:10 → HNL 15:16AS 899 11h 14m 57% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON