Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 252 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:31	KOA 10:20	13%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721	8h 25m	97%	87%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	3h 44m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	13h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	PDX 12:58 → SFO 15:08UA 751	3h 51m San Francisco	SFO 18:59 → KOA 21:41UA 1723	11h 43m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	3h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:35DL 989	11h 42m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	11h 03m	99%	81%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 40m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 46m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → KOA 17:19AS 1148	9h 49m	99%	76%
American Details →	PDX 06:29 → LAX 08:53AA 6290 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Los Angeles	LAX 12:35 → KOA 15:29AA 59	12h 00m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:06 → SEA 09:04AS 376	56m Seattle	SEA 10:00 → KOA 12:48AS 709	7h 42m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON