Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14: AA 1714 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1714 PHL 07:37 → RDU 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 706 PHL 18:23 → RDU 19:55 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1714 American	PHL 07:37	RDU 09:27	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 9785 American	PHL 08:39	RDU 10:17	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:23	RDU 11:55	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1759 American	PHL 08:26	RDU 10:10	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
YX 4759 Republic	PHL 15:53	RDU 17:32	16%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 2071 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:32	RDU 11:12	16%	7%	1.6%	71%
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:14	RDU 23:46	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 12:59	RDU 14:35	23%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 873 American	PHL 21:02	RDU 22:47	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 18:23	RDU 19:55	29%	11%	1.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON