Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3809 PHX 08:51 → CID 14:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4195 PHX 18:52 → CID 00:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:51	CID 14:10	12%	2%	0.7%	93%
MQ 4019 Envoy	PHX 12:33	CID 17:41	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4195 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 18:52	CID 00:19	19%	3%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON