Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:44, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	17%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 08:00 → SEA 11:06DL 2374	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	12h 35m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:35DL 989	10h 20m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:30 → SEA 14:34AS 637	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 20:46AS 238	12h 16m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:22AS 835	2h 52m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	10h 17m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:57 → SEA 09:01AS 605	59m Seattle	SEA 10:00 → KOA 12:48AS 709	9h 51m	89%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON