Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 645 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	OGG 14:32	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:34	OGG 13:09	17%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 08:00 → SEA 11:06DL 2374	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	12h 56m	100%	87%
United Details →	PHX 10:41 → SFO 12:53UA 2619	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	11h 36m	99%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 05m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 10:56 → PDX 13:48AS 511	3h 57m Portland	PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353	12h 44m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:47 → SEA 15:50AS 609	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202	12h 20m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:55 → SEA 10:58AS 645	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 04m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:22AS 835	3h 42m Honolulu	HNL 16:04 → OGG 16:58AS 1436	11h 14m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON