Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14: AA 2781 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 06:00 → PHL 07:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1441 RDU 17:55 → PHL 19:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	PHL 07:44	7%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 07:10	PHL 08:47	10%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 1714 American	RDU 09:58	PHL 11:38	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1759 American	RDU 10:41	PHL 12:18	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 11:52	PHL 13:29	19%	8%	1.5%	75%
YX 4752 Republic	RDU 19:13	PHL 20:50	23%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:49	PHL 14:20	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:13	PHL 16:47	31%	14%	2.4%	84%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	RDU 17:55	PHL 19:32	32%	13%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON