Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:59, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 222 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:38	KOA 14:22	25%	5%	1.2%	96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	3h 40m San Francisco	SFO 18:59 → KOA 21:41UA 1723	11h 02m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → SEA 10:55DL 2530	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	12h 35m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232	2h 12m Kahului	OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28AS 1250	8h 29m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	9h 54m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 13:58AS 94	2h 35m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → KOA 17:19AS 1148	9h 13m	94%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:10 → SEA 15:03AS 1368	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 20:46AS 238	11h 36m	91%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 15:02 → LAX 15:59DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:35DL 989	7h 33m	68%	54%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 13:58AS 94	1h 16m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	7h 55m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON