Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:07, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 220 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:05	LIH 11:28	21%	3%	1.0%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 47m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 52m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:06 → HNL 13:58AS 94	3h 17m Honolulu	HNL 17:15 → LIH 18:11AS 1143	10h 05m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 59m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	10h 06m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:10 → SEA 15:03AS 1368	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	12h 15m	92%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	53m Honolulu	HNL 13:11 → LIH 14:06AS 1083	7h 59m	46%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON