Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14: DL 2186 at 21:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2186 SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 351 SEA 22:43 → FAI 01:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2186 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:41	FAI 00:30	16%	3%	1.2%	79%
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:43	FAI 21:35	23%	3%	0.8%	75%
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 09:54	FAI 12:44	23%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 96 Alaska	SEA 11:58	FAI 14:49	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 22:43	FAI 01:35	26%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON