tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 861 Delta SLC 11:46 HNL 14:35 21% 5% 1.0% no record
AS 714 Alaska SLC 09:13 HNL 11:51 25% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 38m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 12h 13m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 2h 01m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 9h 42m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 3h 21m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 11h 08m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → HNL 14:05AA 693 10h 52m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 10h 29m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 3h 56m Seattle SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419 12h 04m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5 13h 26m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:11 → LAX 08:17UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 48m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 8h 42m 67% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON