tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:15, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3918 Southwest SMF 10:01 KOA 12:42 10% 2% 0.4% no record
AS 842 Alaska SMF 10:08 KOA 12:52 16% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 53m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:58 → SFO 15:02UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 18:59 → KOA 21:41UA 1723 10h 43m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:35DL 989 11h 18m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 06m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 07m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 9h 09m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:15AS 819 2h 15m Honolulu HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:33AS 1128 9h 04m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:14 → SEA 13:14DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 9h 21m 92% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:15AS 819 47m Honolulu HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:05AS 1108 7h 36m 52% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON