tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 11:17, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 24m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:14 → SEA 13:14DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 44m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 36m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:15AS 819 3h 22m Honolulu HNL 14:37 → LIH 15:32AS 1103 10h 03m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:14 → LAX 07:47AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 09:24 → LIH 12:37AA 119 9h 23m 97% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 28m Kahului OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159 9h 43m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON