tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 959 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:30 OGG 10:56 13% 3% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:14 → SEA 13:14DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 42m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 32m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:14 → LAX 07:47AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Los Angeles LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271 8h 30m 96% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:15AS 819 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 14:50 → OGG 15:45AS 1136 10h 16m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SLC 08:43DL 1526 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 09m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:58 → SFO 15:02UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 8h 19m 85% 72%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 87% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:07AS 1365 46m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 8h 48m 57% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON