Thursday, October 15 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 15: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:18, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 954 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:25	SJC 21:28	26%	8%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	3h 48m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 19:45AS 839	9h 30m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:45 → SJC 19:51AS 1303	9h 51m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	54m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 19:45AS 839	6h 39m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 15 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON