Thursday, October 15 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 15: one nonstop, AS 953 at 07:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 953 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:00	OGG 09:21	11%	2%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	98%	77%
American Details →	SJC 05:56 → PHX 07:53AA 1358	3h 10m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	11h 36m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:52 → SEA 09:59AS 1304	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 07m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:07 → SEA 08:13AS 762	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	10h 12m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 15 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON