tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Connect in the morning. The same 75-minute layover misses 3% of the time at 8 am and 1 time in 3 at 6 pm.

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 97% 88%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 51m Seattle SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41AS 773 11h 41m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 49m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 8h 43m 97% 83%
Frontier + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:07F9 685 2h 13m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 8h 51m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 7h 33m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 2h 58m Houston IAH 20:12 → SNA 21:45UA 2761 9h 50m 97% 81%
American + Frontiertwo ticketsDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 2h 41m Phoenix PHX 12:20 → SNA 13:42F9 4957 8h 53m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50UA 369 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 13:39 → SNA 15:31UA 5440 · flown by SkyWest 10h 36m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 1h 15m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 8h 14m 66% 54%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888 1h 02m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SNA 18:52UA 1107 7h 52m 73% 49%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:00 → MSP 16:48DL 2863 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:24DL 2107 8h 24m 73% 47%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
IAH · 1h 17m · leaves 06:00 3%
DFW · 1h 03m · leaves 05:00 5%
SFO · 1h 10m · leaves 07:55 7%
Afternoon and evening
CLT · 47m · leaves 15:20 29%
ORD · 1h 15m · leaves 17:05 34%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON