Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

The best bet has a stop: United via Bush (8h 37m) reaches Sacramento on time 95% of the time, against 81% on the nonstop.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


United	IAD	SMF	5h 58m	82%	1.4%	365	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	1h 21m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:07UA 2773	8h 37m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:55DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 10:23 → SMF 12:11DL 1701	9h 11m	95%	88%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031	3h 08m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415	9h 35m	100%	82%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792	3h 25m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	9h 55m	97%	81%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 58m Denver	DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208	10h 28m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	IAD 09:30 → SEA 12:16AS 361	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 14:16 → SMF 16:11AS 681	9h 41m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:52DL 432	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 06m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:46DL 2127	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:07DL 904	8h 07m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:54DL 2135	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743	7h 51m	74%	57%
United Details →	IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599	55m Denver	DEN 20:40 → SMF 22:15UA 1268	7h 34m	69%	39%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:37UA 1828	7h 55m	53%	31%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

SEA · 1h 13m · leaves 06:03 25%

Afternoon and evening

ATL · 1h 05m · leaves 15:02 26%

DEN · 55m · leaves 17:41 31%

ORD · 1h 03m · leaves 17:42 47%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


United UA 325 IAD 07:00 → LAX Delta DL 3812 LAX 12:05 → SMF Connection details →	2h 39m	9h 33m	99%	88%
United UA 2101 IAD 09:00 → SEA Delta DL 4153 SEA 14:45 → SMF Connection details →	2h 54m	10h 47m	100%	88%
United UA 1689 IAD 13:10 → LAX Delta DL 3759 LAX 18:51 → SMF Connection details →	3h 09m	10h 15m	99%	87%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON