Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Southwest’s MDW → SMF flights land within a few points of 7 in 10 on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Southwest	MDW	SMF	4h 25m	70%	0.9%	675	Flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails →	MDW 10:10 → LAX 12:30WN 2433	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	9h 56m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:10 → LAX 07:25WN 4637	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → SMF 10:55WN 4454	7h 45m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122	6h 40m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → SMF 13:00WN 4532	7h 30m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	2h 40m Phoenix	PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781	8h 10m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SMF 09:15WN 1738	6h 00m	98%	88%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 19:01DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	10h 21m	96%	85%
Southwest + Alaskatwo ticketsDetails →	MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25WN 2809	2h 07m Portland	PDX 14:32 → SMF 16:06AS 2405 · flown by Horizon	8h 01m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885	6h 23m	74%	69%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:10 → DEN 12:40WN 2960	50m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SMF 14:58WN 1741	5h 50m	64%	45%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:15 → SAN 16:25WN 2883	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 18:00 → SMF 19:40WN 3549	7h 25m	69%	31%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

SAN · 1h 20m · leaves 05:52 0%

DEN · 55m · leaves 05:15 2%

LAS · 1h 15m · leaves 06:30 4%

Afternoon and evening

LGB · 1h 08m · leaves 13:15 23%

PDX · 1h 15m · leaves 16:40 40%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON