tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Alaska’s MRY → SAN flights land within a few points of 4 in 5 on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)

Nonstop details →
Alaska MRY SAN 1h 26m 81% 2.8% 718 Flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 18:50 → SAN 19:51UA 5415 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MRY 05:00 → DEN 08:32UA 2754 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → MRY 06:00 → PHX 07:57AA 6375 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477 5h 47m 99% 65%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 08m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343 5h 23m 96% 61%
AmericanDetails → MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 5h 20m 96% 58%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561 6h 39m 96% 56%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466 5h 43m 100% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m San Francisco SFO 14:20 → SAN 16:07UA 1147 4h 07m 64% 29%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 3h 51m 36% 24%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
SFO · 1h 09m · leaves 08:00 64%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON