tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Connect in the morning. The same one-hour layover misses 5% of the time at 12 pm and 36% of the time at 5 pm.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)

Nonstop details →
American PHX MSN 3h 23m 81% 0.8% 592 Flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 23:52 → DCA 07:14AA 1542 3h 36m Washington DCA 10:50 → MSN 12:13 +1AA 4523 · flown by Republic 10h 21m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PHX 23:59 → ATL 06:39DL 929 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22 +1DL 2681 8h 25m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 23:04 → DTW 05:46DL 1566 2h 39m Detroit DTW 08:25 → MSN 08:50 +1DL 3671 · flown by SkyWest 7h 46m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 08m Denver DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368 6h 10m 98% 84%
Southwest + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → PHX 08:50 → DEN 11:35WN 3261 2h 05m Denver DEN 13:40 → MSN 17:04UA 4805 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:14 → ORD 11:00AA 3008 2h 14m Chicago ORD 13:14 → MSN 14:19AA 3716 · flown by Envoy 7h 08m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:27DL 918 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:43 → MSN 15:50DL 2599 8h 05m 99% 79%
American + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00AA 2156 2h 38m Newark EWR 08:38 → MSN 10:09 +1UA 3608 · flown by Republic 9h 55m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 48m Chicago ORD 17:00 → MSN 18:12AA 3717 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 68% 43%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 51m Chicago ORD 17:45 → MSN 18:57UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 64% 28%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
MSP · 1h 00m · leaves 06:50 5%
EWR · 57m · leaves 23:57 15%
Afternoon and evening
PHL · 48m · leaves 07:15 13%
DEN · 1h 13m · leaves 16:25 17%
ORD · 51m · leaves 11:12 36%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON