tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Connect in the morning. The same one-hour layover misses 15% of the time at 7 am and 42% of the time at 8 pm.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)

Nonstop details →
Southwest PHX SDF 3h 20m 75% 0.5% 369 Flying now
American PHX SDF – 100%few flights 0.0% 3 Not flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 23:55 → MDW 05:10WN 3298 2h 35m Chicago MDW 07:45 → SDF 10:05 +1WN 1267 7h 10m 100% 95%
Southwest + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → PHX 05:15 → DEN 08:00WN 3259 1h 45m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 6h 13m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → SDF 10:39AA 3788 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20WN 4508 1h 40m Orlando MCO 08:00 → SDF 10:10 +1WN 872 8h 05m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 23:59 → ATL 06:39DL 929 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29 +1DL 1374 7h 33m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723 2h 25m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 6h 55m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:02 → PHL 12:44AA 1511 2h 50m Philadelphia PHL 15:34 → SDF 17:45AA 4720 · flown by Republic 9h 43m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 23:57 → EWR 07:41UA 2078 2h 24m Newark EWR 10:05 → SDF 12:21 +1UA 3421 · flown by Republic 9h 24m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 56m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 6h 11m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686 58m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 58% 37%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:40 → EWR 19:35UA 1190 50m Newark EWR 20:25 → SDF 22:50UA 3512 · flown by Republic 8h 10m 65% 31%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
DEN · 1h 20m · leaves 08:50 2%
MDW · 1h 05m · leaves 06:25 7%
ATL · 56m · leaves 23:59 15%
Afternoon and evening
ATL · 59m · leaves 10:21 18%
EWR · 50m · leaves 11:40 35%
ORD · 58m · leaves 14:45 42%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON