tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Connect in the morning. The same one-hour layover misses 15% of the time at 6 am and 42% of the time at 9 pm.

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
SouthwestDetails → SFO 23:40 → MDW 05:55WN 3649 2h 10m Chicago MDW 08:05 → LGA 11:20 +1WN 2038 8h 40m 96% 91%
United + Americantwo ticketsDetails → SFO 21:23 → CMH 05:15UA 1939 2h 16m Columbus CMH 07:31 → LGA 09:23 +1AA 4604 · flown by Republic 9h 00m 100% 87%
United + Deltatwo ticketsDetails → SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37UA 1815 2h 48m Nashville BNA 09:25 → LGA 12:59 +1DL 5688 · flown by Republic 10h 00m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57UA 368 2h 03m Chicago ORD 08:00 → LGA 11:17 +1UA 2092 8h 47m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 23:59 → ATL 07:42DL 690 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:44 +1DL 467 10h 45m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 22:59 → ATL 06:40DL 495 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:44 +1DL 371 10h 45m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 22:55 → DTW 06:30DL 335 3h 35m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50 +1DL 2589 9h 55m 100% 83%
United + Deltatwo ticketsDetails → SFO 00:50 → ORD 07:16UA 1850 2h 19m Chicago ORD 09:35 → LGA 12:56DL 2252 9h 06m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:10 → IAD 16:25UA 1849 50m Dulles IAD 17:15 → LGA 18:42UA 4077 · flown by Mesa 7h 32m 73% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 22:50 → BNA 05:10WN 3634 1h 20m Nashville BNA 06:30 → LGA 09:45 +1WN 2735 7h 55m 59% 47%
DeltaDetails → SFO 23:59 → ATL 07:42DL 690 48m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:43 +1DL 513 7h 44m 53% 44%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
DFW · 1h 15m · leaves 05:29 2%
DEN · 1h 14m · leaves 05:00 2%
IAH · 1h 05m · leaves 05:00 3%
Afternoon and evening
IAD · 50m · leaves 08:10 27%
BOS · 58m · leaves 12:20 42%
ORD · 1h 10m · leaves 12:00 43%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON