Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Delta’s SMF → MSP flights land within a few points of 93% on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Delta	SMF	MSP	3h 28m	93%	0.7%	591	Flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45WN 3802	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → MSP 09:10 +1WN 1243	7h 20m	98%	94%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 10:12 → PDX 11:42WN 949	3h 18m Portland	PDX 15:00 → MSP 20:27DL 1661	8h 15m	100%	94%
Alaska + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 07:23 → SAN 09:05AS 1680	2h 48m San Diego	SAN 11:53 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	8h 17m	100%	93%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784	2h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 09:32 → MSP 14:40DL 2261	7h 15m	96%	93%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 07:45 → PHX 09:35WN 106	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 11:51 → MSP 16:56DL 2208	7h 11m	100%	92%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 05:00 → SEA 06:55WN 4920	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:25DL 536	7h 25m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 +1DL 2668	9h 00m	98%	90%
Alaska + Deltatwo ticketsDetails →	SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon	3h 43m Portland	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49 +1DL 2359	8h 32m	98%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 15:05 → ORD 21:35AA 2627	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	67%	41%
United Details →	SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766	55m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	6h 53m	50%	29%
American Details →	SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28AA 2634	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 02m	66%	28%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

DEN · 1h 18m · leaves 05:00 1%

DFW · 1h 08m · leaves 05:18 7%

ORD · 1h 06m · leaves 23:43 11%

Afternoon and evening

SLC · 1h 09m · leaves 13:30 9%

ORD · 1h 01m · leaves 15:05 33%

DFW · 1h 02m · leaves 14:55 34%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON