Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Southwest’s SMF → BWI flights land within a few points of 86% on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Southwest	SMF	BWI	4h 55m	86%	0.8%	364	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15WN 3799	2h 25m Orlando	MCO 08:40 → BWI 10:55 +1WN 2611	9h 45m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	SMF 17:50 → LAS 19:20WN 4116	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2208	8h 55m	98%	91%
United Details →	SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 23:05 → BWI 07:14 +1UA 1605	9h 27m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45WN 3802	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45 +1WN 1355	8h 55m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47 +1DL 801	9h 47m	100%	89%
United Details →	SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954	2h 39m San Francisco	SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664	8h 57m	97%	88%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	SMF 17:30 → ONT 18:55WN 480	2h 45m Ontario	ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143	9h 00m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15WN 3799	55m Orlando	MCO 07:10 → BWI 09:30 +1WN 1956	8h 15m	64%	58%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:45 → SAN 20:20WN 4293	1h 20m San Diego	SAN 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3486	7h 50m	68%	44%
United Details →	SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766	47m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	7h 11m	33%	19%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

IAH · 1h 15m · leaves 05:15 3%

MDW · 1h 15m · leaves 23:50 3%

ORD · 1h 15m · leaves 23:10 4%

Afternoon and evening

MCI · 1h 05m · leaves 11:50 24%

DEN · 1h 05m · leaves 13:40 29%

SAN · 1h 20m · leaves 18:45 32%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


Delta DL 3969 SMF 06:00 → LAX United UA 1093 LAX 09:33 → BWI Connection details →	1h 53m	8h 43m	96%	87%
Delta DL 3712 SMF 18:55 → LAX United UA 1605 LAX 23:05 → BWI Connection details →	2h 25m	9h 19m	95%	86%
Frontier F9 2070 SMF 18:28 → LAS Southwest WN 2208 LAS 22:10 → BWI Connection details →	2h 11m	8h 17m	92%	85%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON