Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: Southwest’s SMF → MDW flights land within a few points of 87% on time whatever the hour.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)


Southwest	SMF	MDW	3h 55m	87%	0.3%	677	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


Southwest Details →	SMF 18:45 → SAN 20:20WN 4293	2h 20m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → MDW 04:40 +1WN 257	7h 55m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15WN 3799	1h 45m Orlando	MCO 08:00 → MDW 09:50 +1WN 2835	9h 40m	98%	92%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:05 → PDX 19:35WN 3813	3h 55m Portland	PDX 23:30 → MDW 05:20 +1WN 3203	9h 15m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:09 +1DL 1063	10h 09m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	SMF 19:50 → PHX 21:45WN 4285	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 23:55 → MDW 05:10 +1WN 3298	7h 20m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:50 → LAS 20:20WN 3786	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 35m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:50WN 3784	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	6h 30m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:35 → ATL 14:12DL 741	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 40m	93%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SMF 16:35 → LAS 18:05WN 2221	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 19:20 → MDW 01:30 +1WN 3200	6h 20m	73%	21%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

MCO · 1h 10m · leaves 22:10 14%

Afternoon and evening

ATL · 1h 13m · leaves 12:18 7%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


Alaska AS 3036 SMF 17:37 → SAN Southwest WN 257 SAN 22:40 → MDW Connection details →	3h 19m	9h 03m	98%	89%
United UA 5628 SMF 18:47 → LAX Southwest WN 2413 LAX 23:55 → MDW Connection details →	3h 16m	9h 08m	100%	84%
United UA 1889 SMF 05:00 → DEN Southwest WN 755 DEN 10:00 → MDW Connection details →	1h 38m	6h 25m	95%	83%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON