Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: airlines and hours on this route all land within a few points of 4 in 5 on time.

Nonstops


United	SMF	ORD	4h 10m	82%	1.3%	987	Flying now
American	SMF	ORD	4h 10m	73%	1.7%	355	Flying now

Best connections, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.


United Details →	SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → ORD 04:51 +1UA 353	8h 04m	99%	88%
American Details →	SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06 +1AA 2919	9h 45m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:32DL 878	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:35 +1DL 1178	8h 35m	98%	84%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	99%	82%
United Details →	SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568	6h 50m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476	2h 52m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	9h 02m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon	2h 09m Portland	PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376	7h 43m	96%	80%
United Details →	SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	8h 54m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 22:54 → EWR 07:06UA 2132	53m Newark	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43 +1UA 2488	8h 49m	70%	57%
American Details →	SMF 23:45 → DFW 05:04AA 3314	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:00 → ORD 08:39 +1AA 3075	6h 54m	71%	55%
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:23 → SEA 12:22AS 1468	48m Seattle	SEA 13:10 → ORD 19:21AS 410	6h 58m	71%	51%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning

DEN · 1h 13m · leaves 05:00 1%

IAH · 54m · leaves 05:15 10%

LAX · 50m · leaves 07:00 17%

Afternoon and evening

MSP · 56m · leaves 13:21 10%

PHX · 53m · leaves 16:13 25%

DFW · 1h 00m · leaves 11:02 25%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.

Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.


Southwest WN 3799 SMF 22:10 → MCO United UA 2683 MCO 09:40 → ORD Connection details →	3h 25m	11h 38m	100%	94%
Southwest WN 3759 SMF 23:05 → BNA American AA 3973 BNA 09:04 → ORD Connection details →	3h 54m	9h 55m	100%	90%
Southwest WN 2178 SMF 06:15 → LAS American AA 2020 LAS 09:40 → ORD Connection details →	2h 00m	7h 27m	100%	90%

Rank all connections, any airlines →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON