tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No nonstop, and no clear pattern: the best connection reaches Dulles on time 9 times in 10.

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
Delta + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:59DL 1277 4h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → IAD 06:13 +1UA 726 10h 10m 99% 91%
Alaska + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325 3h 18m Seattle SEA 13:00 → IAD 21:06UA 2131 11h 19m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:26 → DEN 21:47UA 2656 2h 12m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 8h 01m 97% 90%
Alaska + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 18:09 → PDX 20:31AS 589 2h 59m Portland PDX 23:30 → IAD 07:32 +1UA 498 10h 23m 100% 88%
Southwest + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 9h 22m 100% 87%
Alaska + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774 3h 00m Seattle SEA 23:20 → IAD 07:22 +1UA 264 10h 50m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 2h 10m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 13m 100% 82%
Southwest + Unitedtwo ticketsDetails → SNA 09:00 → LAS 10:10WN 2218 3h 13m Las Vegas LAS 13:23 → IAD 21:06UA 2382 9h 06m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 13:46 → SLC 16:40DL 1159 50m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:30DL 847 6h 44m 67% 54%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837 8h 31m 72% 46%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 59% 43%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Afternoon and evening
SEA · 1h 09m · leaves 18:46 29%
SLC · 50m · leaves 13:46 33%
EWR · 54m · leaves 12:29 41%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON