tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Itineraries flown on 20+ days in the Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 schedule · each leg’s record Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

No clear winner: airlines and hours on this route all land within a few points of 88% on time.

Nonstops (seasonal or thin)

Nonstop details →
Delta TYS MSP 2h 35m 88% 0.8% 486 Flying now
Allegiant TYS MSP – 75%few flights 0.0% 4 Not flying now

Best connections, any airlines

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival, layover included (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for the details.
AmericanDetails → TYS 07:15 → ORD 08:20AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 3h 25m Chicago ORD 11:45 → MSP 13:27AA 3719 · flown by Envoy 7h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:44DL 3015 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 50m 98% 87%
Southwest + Deltatwo ticketsDetails → TYS 07:00 → BNA 06:55WN 3388 3h 07m Nashville BNA 10:02 → MSP 12:15DL 2724 6h 15m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → TYS 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 2483 1h 51m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → TYS 10:26 → ATL 11:30DL 1290 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:09DL 2825 6h 43m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → TYS 07:02 → ORD 08:10AA 6216 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Chicago ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy 7h 30m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:28UA 1998 5h 43m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:46DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:21 → MSP 13:57DL 2901 7h 22m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TYS 12:10 → IAH 13:32UA 6299 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 14:20 → MSP 17:12UA 2150 6h 02m 75% 53%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:07 → CLT 19:35AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 54m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → MSP 22:13AA 2176 5h 04m 63% 46%
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:25 → DTW 19:14DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 51m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MSP 21:00DL 1303 4h 35m 61% 39%

Same layover, different day-part

How often the first flight arrives too late to connect (45 min minimum), for one-ticket layovers of 45–80 minutes.

Morning
BNA · 1h 15m · leaves 07:00 4%
IAD · 1h 15m · leaves 05:45 6%
ATL · 1h 09m · leaves 07:35 12%
Afternoon and evening
CLT · 54m · leaves 18:07 37%
DTW · 51m · leaves 17:25 39%

Delays build through the day, so an afternoon first leg eats the layover. A short connection is fine early in the morning and a gamble later on.

Mixing airlines

One ticketMiss it and the airline rebooks you; bags go through. 45 min is enough.
Separate ticketsMiss it and you buy a new ticket. Re-check bags, clear security again: we require 90 min.

The table above includes two-ticket connections (marked “two tickets”), held to the 90-minute minimum. One ticket only →

Regional partners count as the airline that sells them: SkyWest flying Delta Connection is one Delta ticket.

How these are worked out. Makes the connection: share of the last year’s flights where the first flight arrived with at least 45 minutes to spare (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled and arriving within 15 minutes. Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.

About this data: US DOT on-time records, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. Schedules (which flights and connections exist, and their times) are as of Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026; seasonal flights outside that window aren’t ranked. Rebuilt monthly. JSON