9E 4965 · MSP → SDF

took off 4:39 PM CT · landed 7:00 PM ET (scheduled 4:18 PM CT → 7:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 4pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.47 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4965 · MSP → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?