Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5001 LANDED 11:22 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5001 · MSP → SDF

took off 8:56 PM CT · landed 11:22 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5001 · MSP → SDF

Odds over time